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Day one: Wednesday 22nd October 2008
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08.15 | Registration and refreshments
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08.50 | Chairman’s opening remarks
David Thompson, Partner, Collingham Capital
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| GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY |
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09.10 | After the great financial meltdown: recession or depression?
- What next for the global economy
- Recession or depression?
Gavyn Davies, Co-founder, Fulcrum Asset Management and Prisma Capital Partners
Gavyn Davies was Goldman Sachs Chief Economist and Chairman of the Global Investment Research Department from 1988-2001, during which time he repeatedly ranked as the City's top UK, European or global economist in surveys of institutional investors. He joined the Policy Unit at 10 Downing Street as an Economist in 1974 and was an Economic Policy Adviser to the Prime Minister in the same organisation from 1976-79. He has been a member of the UK Treasury’s Independent Forecasting Panel (1992-1997), and an Economic Adviser to the House of Commons Select Committee on the Treasury and a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics. He was appointed Chairman of the BBC in October 2001 and resigned his position in January 2004.
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| | Mr Gavyn Davies, Co-founder, Fulcrum Asset Management & Prisma Capital Partners
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09.55 | Funds of funds - the credit crunch and asset allocation
- The credit crunch: implications for FOHF allocations
- Monitoring prime brokerage and counterparty risks
- Will quant problems be a recurring theme in a credit-constrained world?
- Is now the time to allocate to distressed debt funds?
- The outlook for investor risk tolerance
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| | Mr Bob Discolo, MD, Head of Hedge Fund Strategies Group, AIG Investments Mr Michel Malo, Executive Vice-President, Hedge Funds, Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec
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10.30 | Morning refreshments and hedge fund showcase
In a relaxed and informal setting, three funds each have eight minutes to impress, in this optional showcase held on the main stage. Email matt.anderson@terrapinn.com to be considered.
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| GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY |
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11.15 | Global investment strategy for 2009 and beyond
- US inflation: with the dollar weak, commodity prices high and central banks injecting liquidity, will inflation get out of control?
- Global equities and bonds
- Which regions offer the best returns?
- Commodities: how will a cyclical economic downturn impact the secular bull market?
- Currencies: will the dollar lose reserve currency status – what would be the implications?
Dr Marc Faber, Principal, The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report
Based in Hong Kong since 1973, Marc Faber is one of the world's greatest investment strategists. His recent analysis of the Bernanke mindset has proved unerringly accurate, but even investors who disagree with his conclusions find his views extremely though-provoking. Not to be missed! |
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12.15 | Global emerging markets panel
- Economic decoupling: truth or fiction?
- The impact of high oil prices
- Emerging market currencies outlook
- The outlook for emerging market bonds and equities
- Generating alpha (instead of beta) from emerging market hedge funds
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| | Mr Gabriel Stein, Director and Chief International Economist, Lombard Street Research Adrian Mowat, Chief Asian and Emerging Equity Strategist, JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Larry Brainard, Chief Economist and Head of Research, Trusted Sources Research
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13.00 | Lunch
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14.00 | The global banking crisis: causes, consequences and solutions
- What’s behind the recurring banking crises: unproductive credit creation
- The elephant in the room: central banks
- The unintended consequences of the government bailout packages
- The outlook for markets
Richard Werner is known as a central bank watcher, strategist and macro economist. He has 20 years of experience at institutions such as Asian Development Bank, Ministry of Finance of Japan, Bank of Japan, Japan Development Bank, Nomura Research and Jardine Fleming. He has taught finance at universities in both Japan and England since 1997. His book on Japan’s asset bubble and bust, “Princes of the Yen”, became a No. 1 bestseller in Japan. In 2003, the World Economic Forum selected him as 'Global Leader for Tomorrow' in Davos. His 2005 book ‘New Paradigm in Macroeconomics’ warned of the coming UK banking collapse. Richard has been managing global macro funds, including for Bear Stearns Asset Management, since 1998, and has experience as a corporate pension fund asset allocator.
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| EVENT-DRIVEN STRATEGIES |
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14.45 | Private equity and event-driven panel
- The market outlook for private equity
- The outlook for M&A
- Understanding the performance of event-driven strategies in the last two years
- Is now the time to increase exposures to distressed debt?
- Where are the opportunities and possible pitfalls in the current environment?
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15.30 | Speed networking and afternoon refreshments
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| INVESTOR PROTECTION - HEDGE FUND STANDARDS |
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16.15 | The regulator's view of hedge funds and hedge fund standards
- Update on the FSA's regulatory framework for hedge funds
- Lessons for asset managers from the recent market events
- The FSA's market abuse initiative
- HFSB standards in brief
- How do they protect investors?
- Financial stability and systemic risk
- How fully has the HF industry embraced the new standards?
- What about overseas hedge funds?
Hector Sants, Chief Executive Officer, Financial Services Authority
Antonio Borges, Chairman, Hedge Fund Standards Board
Hector Sants is Europe’s top financial regulator. He has extensive experience of the wholesale markets and has introduced a more “pro-active” approach to regulation. Antonio Borges is the former vice-Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and is the newly-appointed Chairman of the Hedge Fund Standards Board.
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17.15 | Panel discussion : 10%? 20%? 30%? Should institutional investors increase their HF allocations to more meaningful levels?
- Hedge funds: what are the real risks to investors?
- What future returns should hedge fund investors reasonably expect?
- Do hedge funds really have diversifying qualities?
- Why are investors scared to make meaningful allocations?
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18.00 | Networking drinks reception
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Day two: Thursday 23rd October 2008
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08.15 | Registration and refreshments
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08.50 | Chairman’s opening remarks
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| THE AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE |
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09.00 | The “subprime” US economy and the role of the Fed
- From equities to property to credit: the evolution of a bubble
- Understanding the Greenspan legacy
- Bernanke: just playing out a losing hand?
- US inflation and the “shadow statistics”
- To what extent did the property bubble bring consumption forward?
- Can emerging economies power the US economy?
- The end of dollar supremacy?
- Does the November US presidential election matter?
Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Professor Nouriel Roubini is an internationally renowned economist, the founder of rgemonitor.com and a faculty member at Stern School of Business. He served as the Senior Economist for International Affairs at the White House Council of Economic Advisors and as Senior Advisor at the U.S. Treasury Department.
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09.45 | Investor strategy panel: macro outlook and directional exposures
- Key directional exposures: currency, commodities, equities
- Directional bets with staying power
- Emerging markets: less at risk than developed markets?
- Credit spreads: current outlook
- Which “alternative beta” exposures offer best value at present?
- Overall market exposures: the big picture
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| | Dr Dan Bergman, Head Of Risk Allocation, AP3 (Third Swedish National Pension Fund)
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10.30 | Morning refreshments and hedge fund showcase
In a relaxed and informal setting, three funds each have eight minutes to impress, in this optional showcase held on the main stage. Email matt.anderson@terrapinn.com to be considered.
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| FINANCIAL STABILITY, LEVERAGE, AND SYSTEMIC RISK |
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11.15 | Financial stability: hedge funds and leverage
- Hedge funds and leverage
- Leverage post the sub-prime fiasco
Emmanuel Roman joined Goldman Sachs in 1987 where over the years he worked in the fixed income, investment banking and capital markets areas. In 1991 he became the co-head of Worldwide Equity Derivatives. In 1996 Emmanuel became a Managing Director of Goldman Sachs and in 1998 he was elected to partnership. In 2001 he was appointed co-head of Worldwide Global Securities Services and in 2003 he also became co-head of the European Equities Division and a member of the European Management Committee. In September 2005, after 18 years at Goldman Sachs International Limited, Emmanuel joined GLG as co-CEO and a Managing Director where he focuses primarily on expanding the business, client management, risk management, operations, technology and compliance.
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11.50 | Fair value accounting: fairness or fantasy?
- Industry best practice
- Regulatory confusion
- Investor perception
- US-International convergence
Max Ziff, Co-Head UK Financial Advisory System, Houlihan Lokey
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12.20 | Hedge funds, leverage and systemic risk: are risk managers too complacent?
- The true nature of hedge fund risks
- Issues surrounding leverage
- Systemic risk
- How should best practice change in hedge fund risk management?
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13.00 | Lunch
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| QUANTITATIVE ISSUES IN HEDGE FUND INVESTING
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14.00 | Investing with trading systems
- Types of trading system
- Advantages of systems
- Limitations of systems
- Inductive logic and statistical inference in investment
- Investing in research
David Harding, Founder and Managing Director, Winton Capital Management
With a 20 year track record of success, David Harding is a legend in the world of CTAs and managed futures. He was the "H" in the AHL, which was brought by Man Group in 1989 and remains central to Man's success. If you want to learn how to build great trading systems, David Harding is the man.
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14.40 | Panel: developing quant systems to generate persistent alpha
- The different approaches to developing a quant model
- Being different: how to avoid following the quant “herd”?
- Equity long/short – will quant problems be a recurring theme going forward?
- How do you know when an approach becomes over-crowded?
- How do you ensure your testing is really, truly robust?
- How do you manage risk and leverage?
- Dealing with losses in a mean reversion model: double or quit?
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| | Mr Mike Turner, Head of Risk Management and Quantitative Techniques, Financial Risk Management (FRM) Limited
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15.20 | Afternoon refreshments
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| SUCCESSFULLY MANAGING PENSIONS AND ENDOWMENTS
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15.50 | The key principles of highly effective investing
- Identifying alpha. Managing beta
- The role of inflation-linked natural resources
- Successful philosophies for investing in hedge funds
James Walsh, Chief Investment Officer, Cornell University
In 2006 Cornell University poached James Walsh to cross the Atlantic and run their $5bn endowment. He joined from Hermes Investment Mangement, the manager of the British Telecom and Post Office pension funds, where he was Head of Strategy and Alternatives - a role which included establishing and managing the hedge fund and commoditites portfolios.
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16.30 | Panel: building successful investment portfolios in the 21st century
- The beta puzzle – market return forecasts
- The alpha strategy – adding value
- The risk conundrum – approaches to diversification
- Efficient portfolio construction – jigsaw pieces
- The deal machine – efficient trading
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17.15 | Closing drinks reception
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